Impacts of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods on Nepal’s National Security

Abstract

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) are emerging as an acute threat to Nepal, driven largely by the rapid melting of Himalayan glaciers due to climate change. This article explores the diverse impacts of GLOFs on Nepal’s national security, emphasizing implications for human security, economic stability, environmental integrity, and social cohesion. Historical events, such as the 1985 Dig Tsho GLOF and the recent 2024 Thame village incident, underscore the devastation caused by these floods, including fatalities, displacement, and destruction of critical infrastructure. The frequency and intensity of GLOF events are increasing, exacerbating risks to communities living downstream of high-risk glacial lakes. Nepal’s vulnerability is further heightened by limited infrastructure, insufficient disaster preparedness, and a lack of adequate climate adaptation resources. The study employed a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative data analysis with qualitative data to assess the complex interplay between GLOFs, infrastructure, vulnerability, and national security. The article identifies key challenges, including the displacement of communities, leading to social unrest, economic instability from infrastructure damage, and environmental degradation impacting local ecosystems. Additionally, geopolitical factors complicate disaster management, particularly regarding cross-border GLOF risks with neighboring countries. To mitigate these threats, the article recommends implementing early warning systems, enhancing infrastructure resilience, promoting community-based disaster preparedness initiatives, and emphasizing the importance of leveraging international platforms. By understanding the multifaceted impacts of GLOFs, policymakers can develop effective measures to mitigate risks, protect critical infrastructure, and enhance Nepal’s overall security.