Effect of Weather Years and Climatic Parameters on Yield of Maize Varieties under Sub-tropical Condition of Nepal

Abstract

Recent trends of climate change have raised serious concerns about the food production not only in regional levels but locally and globally. The well calibrated and validated Crop Simulation Model (CSM)-Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Maize (v 4.0) model and secondary crop data were used to test sensitivity of this model in subtropical condition of Nepal. The model was sensitive to climatic parameters (temperatures CO₂ concentration and solar radiation) and weather years on yields of Rampur Composite, Upahar and Arun-4. The simulated yield for Rampur Composite and Arun-4 were 13.41% and 16.89% higher, respectively in 2006, while it was 0.12% higher for Upahar in 2005 than the yield of maize in 2007. Likewise, decrease in both maximum and minimum temperature by 4°C with respect to either solar radiation (±1MJm^-2day^-1) and CO₂ (+20 ppm) change or not change, maize yield increased by 11.72-49.11% as compared to base scenario while it was decreased by 32.22-2.83% for increase in both maximum and minimum temperature by 4°C along with either change in solar radiation (±1MJm^-2day^-1) and CO₂ (+20 ppm) or remains same. Results revealed that the temperature is more critical for yield potentiality of cultivars than any other climatic parameters. Screening out and adopting of new technology would be required to combat with changing climatic scenarios for attaining the potential yield of maize. CERES

Key words: CSM-CERES-maize; simulation; calibration; validation; grain yield

DOI: 10.3126/njst.v11i0.4084

Nepal Journal of Science and Technology 11 (2010) 17-24