Analyzing Trend and Pattern of Agricultural Drought: A Case Study of Karnali and Sudurpashchim Provinces

Abstract

A drought is a period of time when an area or region experiences below-normal precipitation, with characteristics and impacts that can vary from region to region. Agricultural Drought analyzes and reflects the extent of the soil moisture and morphology of crop. Deficient rainfall in the winter of 2008 resulted in a severe drop in crop production right across the country. So, there is a necessity of assessment of drought events to make informed and timely decisions. The main focus of our study is to monitor the agricultural drought in Karnali and Sudurpashchim provinces of Nepal. The condition of drought in Karnali and Sudurpashchim provinces from 2001- 2020 were analysed with the help of Drought Severity Index. MODIS NDVI (MOD13) and MODIS ET-PET (MOD16) datasets were used to monitor and analyze the trend and pattern of agricultural drought scenario. Both datasets were then normalized for DSI calculation and the DSI result was used to monitor and to analyze the trend and pattern in the agricultural drought scenario. Further, trend and pattern analyses were performed in terms of landcover, ecological zones, and the variation of DSI. After completion of this project, we can conclude that the Maximum dryness was found in March, it might be due to less NDVI and increase in evapotranspiration rate and maximum wetness in November. Agricultural area experienced more drought variation than other landcover zones