The Shifting Geopolitics

Abstract

Geopolitics has now taken center stage in shaping the domestic and foreign policies of nation-states. This trend largely aligns with the principles of political realism, where states aim to survive in an anarchical international order by maximizing power and wealth while minimizing losses. In an era characterized by rapid ecological, economic, and technological changes, as well as uncertainty and conflicting dynamics in international politics, geopolitical narratives have captured the attention of statesmen, journalists, academics, policy analysts, and military strategists. The traditional version of geopolitics, which was characterized by determinism, expansionism, and aggression, has given way to a more nuanced understanding of where states make strategic choices in a multi-polar world. However, this shift has also witnessed a decline in multilateralism and the rise of nationalism, populism, and fundamentalism, which has weakened international regimes and global governance institutions. These developments are occurring at a time when many global issues, such as arms proliferation, pandemics, poverty, inflation, and climate change, require international cooperation. The global power shift from the Atlantic to Asia, particularly with the ascent of China as a geo-strategic rival to the USA with global influence in security, development, and civilization initiatives, as well as the growing Sino-Russian partnership, has created new geopolitical dynamics. India's neutral stance between a resurgent Russia and the USA, while being part of America's Indo-Pacific strategy, alongside rival strategies aimed at containing, deterring, and pushing back against China, has placed small states like Nepal in a challenging position. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, driven by the latter's interest in joining NATO and the EU, has reshaped bilateral relationships among major and minor states. This ongoing conflict shows no signs of resolution, further complicating global geopolitics. The emergence of the Eurasian geopolitical pole and the Atlantic solidarity, along with their contest for supremacy, are affecting global security, political and economic order, and the formation and dissolution of alliances among nation-states as they strive to rebalance their relationships.