Network Bandwidth Utilization Prediction Based on Observed SNMP Data

Abstract

 Bandwidth requirement prediction is an important part of network design and service planning. The natural way of predicting bandwidth requirement for existing network is to analyze the past trends and apply appropriate mathematical model to predict for the future. For this research, the historical usage data of FWDR network nodes of Nepal Telecom is subject to univariate linear time series ARIMA model after logit transformation to predict future bandwidth requirement. The predicted data is compared to the real data obtained from the same network and the predicted data has been found to be within 10% MAPE. This model reduces the MAPE by 11.71% and 15.42% respectively as compared to the non-logit transformed ARIMA model at 99% CI. The results imply that the logit transformed ARIMA model has better performance compared to non-logit-transformed ARIMA model. For more accurate and longer term predictions, larger dataset can be taken along with season adjustments and consideration of long term variations.

Journal of the Institute of Engineering, 2017, 13(1): 160-168